# Origin Bay Harbor: preconstruction prices and deposits

> Source: https://bluebaybrokers.com/buildings/origin-bay-harbor
> Publisher: BlueBay Brokers LLC, 1541 Brickell Ave #1201, Miami FL 33129 (Florida broker BK3411036)
> Figures read on: 2026-10-18
> Plain-text copy of the page above for AI assistants and readers. Quote with attribution to BlueBay Brokers; each figure carries its own source and read date. Nothing here certifies that a short-term rental is legal at any address.

## The bet

Origin Bay Harbor is a 27-residence waterfront building, 74 percent under contract and delivering late 2026, and the number that decides it is $1,940 a foot: what the developer asks on its last plans, against $1,244 to $1,364 at which homes in the same 33154 bands closed this year. The early buyers took the launch price. A buyer today pays for scarcity, a finished building in months, and a premium worth negotiating.

## Absorption and timing

How many homes close each year in this building's price band and postcode, against how many it is about to deliver. No brochure answers this, and it governs both the resale and the developer's willingness to discount.

Units delivering 27 all at once, to the same buyer pool

Closings per year 114 trailing 12 months, 33154, same band

Years of supply 0.2 this building alone

Band closes at $1,244/sf median of real closings, not asks

| Band, 33154 | Closed / 12 mo | Median price | Median $/sf |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4M – $5M | 19 | $4,350,000 | $1,244 |
| $2.5M – $4M | 36 | $3,163,500 | $1,364 |
| $1.5M – $2.5M | 59 | $1,800,000 | $946 |

**A building too small to flood its market**

Supply is not the risk here. 27 residences against 114 closings a year in these 33154 bands is about two months of the postcode's demand, and only seven are unsold: 20 of 27 were under contract at financing (Commercial Observer, June 2025). The question is the opposite one, whether the next buyer pays the current list. Residence 302 has been on the MLS since April 2025 and was raised from $3,482,000 to $4,223,000 while it waited. That is a developer price list doing what price lists do, and it is also 18 months without a buyer at that level.

## The market it lands in

Everything for sale in 33154 today against everything that actually sold there this past year. This is the pool your resale competes in.

Active inventory 376 homes listed across 33154

Sold, trailing year 378 recorded closings, every price

Months of supply 11.9 under 6 favours sellers, over 12 favours buyers

Asking vs sold $1,052/sf asked, against $801/sf actually paid

How to read the gap

Asking is an opinion, sold is a fact, and months of supply is your leverage. Do not compare this building to the postcode median, which mixes in stock built decades ago: the comparison that counts is the band below.

## What recent deliveries resell for

The only read-across that means anything here: condominiums in 33154 built from 2023 onward, people who bought new and took delivery, and what their units resell for now.

New stock resells at $1,352/sf median of 19 closings this year

Movement since +12.2% across recently delivered buildings

This building asks $1,949/sf entry residences

Entry vs new stock +44% below zero means you buy new under resale

| Year of resale | Closings | Median $/sf |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5 | $1,205 |
| 2026 | 19 | $1,352 |

Why a year can show no figure

Under 5 transactions a median is noise, so it is withheld. Recently delivered buildings are thin by nature, which is itself worth knowing before counting on a quick resale.

## The basis

What it asks per foot against what its band actually closes at. Comparing one preconstruction ask to another tells you nothing: both are price lists.

Asking

$1,931–$1,949/sf

$1.5M – $4M as reported at financing (Commercial Observer, June 2025) · two residences listed today at $4,161,500 and $4,223,000 · 1,367 – 2,328 sf

Band closes at $1,244/sf $4M – $5M, trailing 12 months

Listed here today 2 median $1,940/sf

**A premium for the last plans**

The two residences listed today ask $1,931 and $1,949 a foot, both through Cervera. In 33154 the $4M to $5M band closed 19 homes in the trailing year at a median $1,244, the $2.5M to $4M band 36 at $1,364, and stock built since 2023 resold this year at $1,352. So the remaining plans carry roughly 40 to 55 percent over what the postcode pays for finished homes. Part of that is real: open bay frontage, private slips, Artefacto interiors, 26 neighbours. Part of it is a list price, and a list price is where the conversation starts.

## On the MLS today

2 listings at this address are Active right now, pulled 2026-10-18. Leases are excluded: a monthly rent sitting in the price column wrecks any comparison. This is what a buyer can actually transact on today, as opposed to what a price list says.

| Unit | Bd/Ba | Interior | Asking | $/sf | HOA / mo | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [401](https://bluebaybrokers.com/listing?mls=A12087846) | 4/4 | 2,135 sf | $4,161,500 | $1,949 | $3,800 | 0 |
| [302](https://bluebaybrokers.com/listing?mls=A11783461) | 3/5 | 2,187 sf | $4,223,000 | $1,931 | $3,951 | 518 |

How to read this table

On new construction the MLS area is routinely the total rather than the interior, and it runs larger than the County's recorded figure, by 10 to 30 percent on the units already tested in this pipeline. Treat the $/sf column as the seller's own arithmetic and re-divide by the recorded area before comparing it with anything delivered.

## Photographs

The 22 photographs carried on MLS listing A12087846 at this address. On a building still under construction these are the developer's renders and the sales-gallery material, not the finished product.

**Photographs** © SEFMLS, displayed from the MLS under the same licence that permits display of the listing itself. Renders are the developer's own and are subject to change.

## What the deposit costs to hold

A preconstruction deposit is committed years before you hold a deed, earning nothing. That carry is a real cost of the trade and it is never in the pitch. Modelled on $4,161,500 at 4.5% simple, 3 months to delivery.

| Milestone | % | Payment | Committed | Held | Carry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At contract (assumed standard 10/10/10, two milestones already passed) | 30% | $1,248,450 | $1,248,450 | 3 mo | −$14,045 |
| At closing | 70% | $2,913,050 | $4,161,500 | 0 mo | −$0 |
| Committed before closing |  |  | $4,161,500 |  | −$14,045 |

Why this line matters more than the yield

Nothing is rented and nothing is owned meanwhile, so the whole return has to come from the gap between contract price and the market at delivery. That carry, about $14,045, is the hurdle before you break even, and deposits are generally non-refundable, so a delivery that slips extends it without your consent.

## Carry at delivery

What it costs to own before any income, on the smallest residence of 2,135 sf.

| HOA at $1.8/sf/month | −$46,116 |
|---|---|
| Property tax at 2.02% of $4,161,500 | −$84,062 |
| Insurance (HO-6), $3.60/sf | −$7,686 |
| Annual carry, before any income | −$137,864 |

**What to secure before you sign**

With delivery three months out on the developer's schedule, there is almost no deposit carry left: a buyer today commits to a closing, not to a two-year wait. The deposit schedule is not published, so the table assumes the Miami standard with its first two milestones already passed. Two things to get in writing. The rental language of the recorded declaration, because the 30-day minimum on this page comes from a broker inventory sheet, not from the documents. And a price, opened from the 18 months residence 302 has spent on the market.

## Delivery risk

| Construction financing | $30.5M construction loan from S3 Capital, closed June 2025 (Commercial Observer, Florida YIMBY). Foundation work was under way at the time; Thornton Construction is the general contractor. |
|---|---|
| Presold | 74% at last disclosure |
| Delivery | Late 2026, per the June 2025 financing release. The broker inventory sheet and the MLS YearBuilt field say 2024 or 2025; the trade press reports construction in 2025, and that is the date used here. |
| Developer | VDA Development, through its subsidiary VDA Origin, co-founded by Mauricio Moya (Commercial Observer). Sales and marketing by Cervera Real Estate, which lists both residences on the MLS today. |
| Rental policy | Marketed as monthly rental, 30-day minimum (broker inventory sheet, read 17 September 2026) |

## Recommendation

BlueBay Brokers · Origin Bay Harbor

### Buy it as a home, and negotiate

A financed small building near the finish line. S3 Capital closed $30.5M of construction debt in June 2025, 20 of 27 residences are under contract, and delivery is due late 2026, so capital is committed for months rather than years. Open water, nine boat slips and Artefacto interiors in a building of 27.

The remaining plans ask 40 to 55 percent over what 33154 closes at, and one has waited 18 months at its price. Offer against the band, not the list, get the recorded rental language first, and own it as a residence or a long hold.

## Want the rest of it?

I am Steve Gabison, a Florida broker, licence BK3411036. I wrote this page. New developments are Carolina Peña's desk at BlueBay Brokers, broker, licence BK3288753: she will send you what is behind it, in English or Spanish.

#### The full file

This page is the public read. The file adds the unit-level price list and what is actually left, the developer's land basis and what it says about room on price, the recorded rental language, and a rental underwriting on the specific line you are looking at. No charge.

#### On the purchase

Developers in this pipeline pay a cooperating broker, so having me represent you costs nothing on top of the price. I negotiate the deposit schedule, the credits and the co-broke, with the recorded comps to argue from.

#### After delivery

This building is monthly, not nightly, so Property Management Brickell LLC would run it as mid-term. Different rate, different occupancy, and I will show you that pro forma rather than a nightly one.

## Read next

- [La Baia North, Bay Harbor Islands, Q1 2027](https://bluebaybrokers.com/buildings/la-baia-north)
- [Aria Reserve, Edgewater, Delivered 2025–2026](https://bluebaybrokers.com/buildings/aria-reserve)
- [Bentley Residences, Sunny Isles Beach, Delivering 2028](https://bluebaybrokers.com/buildings/bentley-residences)
- [All the new-development studies](https://bluebaybrokers.com/new-developments)
- [Developer price vs resale on six delivered Miami condos](https://bluebaybrokers.com/developer-price-vs-resale-miami)
- [What a preconstruction deposit costs to hold](https://bluebaybrokers.com/preconstruction-deposit-carry-miami)
- [Buying preconstruction in Miami as a foreign buyer](https://bluebaybrokers.com/buy-preconstruction-miami-foreign-buyer)

## Sources

- [Commercial Observer, S3 Capital lends $31M on Miami-area condo project (June 2025)](https://commercialobserver.com/2025/06/31m-loan-miami-area-condos/)
- [Florida YIMBY, $30.5M construction loan secured for Origin Bay Harbor (June 2025)](https://floridayimby.com/2025/06/30-5-million-construction-loan-secured-for-origin-bay-harbor-in-bay-harbor-islands.html)
- [Florida YIMBY, construction starts on Origin Residences by Artefacto (March 2024)](https://floridayimby.com/2024/03/construction-starts-on-origin-residences-by-artefacto-at-9760-west-bay-harbor-drive-bay-harbor-islands-fl.html)

**Method, licence and disclaimers**

**Absorption and closed prices** © 2026 Miami Association of Realtors / SEFMLS via Bridge Data Output, pulled 2026-10-18. Deemed reliable, not guaranteed.

**Developer data.** Unit counts, sizes, pricing and delivery dates are the developer's own and are not verified by BlueBay Brokers LLC, which does not represent the developers named here and receives no compensation from them.

**Not investment advice.** A scenario built from stated assumptions. Deposit carry uses simple interest and ignores tax. The recorded condominium documents govern every legal question raised here. Consult your own tax and legal advisers.

**Rental policy** as published by the developer and routinely amended before closing.