BlueBay Brokers Investment Memo
View listing ↗
The Club at Brickell Bay 1-bedroom residence
Short-Term Rental Yield Analysis

The Club at Brickell Bay · Residence 2304

1200 Brickell Bay Drive, Miami FL 33131 · 1 Bed / 1 Bath · 825 sq ft · Built 2004
$460,000 City & Bay views No rental restrictions BlueBay-managed building
Prepared for Eduardo Castillo · July 2026 Modeled at 100% financing · professionally-managed STR
Purchase price
$460,000
$558 / sq ft
HOA
$706/mo
full-service, concierge
Property tax
$6,411/yr
~1.4% of price
Cap rate (base)
5.4%
unlevered, honest
Residence 2304 kitchen Residence 2304 bedroom Residence 2304 bathroom

Tenancy & possession

Not a vacant flip — a tenant is in place today, on a lease from the current owner. The STR numbers below start once that lease ends.

Current tenant, in place$2,950/mo
Lease renewedJuly 14, 2026
Owner-added termination clause60 days' notice
FurnitureTenant's — not included
Fastest possession of the four — the trade-off is the price

The lease itself just renewed, but the owner secured a 60-day termination clause — so a buyer can take possession within 60 days of closing, roughly September 2026, well ahead of #2608 (Nov 2026), #3018 (Feb 2027) and #1914 (Apr 2027). That speed is priced in: at $460,000 this is the most expensive of the four. Confirm the 60-day clause transfers to a new owner before relying on it — get it in writing from the listing agent.

Listing agent Liana Doganiero (The Keyes Company) is offering a 3% co-broke commission. Source: WhatsApp thread with the listing agent, 16–18 Jul 2026 — verify directly before writing an offer.

The revenue basis is real — and it's understated

These aren't AirDNA guesses. They come from a 1-bedroom unit BlueBay actively manages in this exact building (Guesty P&L, 12-month trailing May 2025 → April 2026). The important nuance: that owner self-occupied it every summer, which held its reported revenue below its true rental potential.

Managed 1BR at The Club — as reportedTrailing 12 mo
Occupancy (blended)73%
Average daily rate$192
Gross revenue as reported$52,100
The owner used it every summer — you wouldn't

May–August, that unit ran just 45–54% occupancy while the other professionally-managed units in the same building held 80–90%. That gap is owner self-use, not weak demand. As a pure investor keeping the unit fully available, the previous owner's foregone summer rent — about $6,400/year — comes back to you.

Same unit — investor basis (summer restored to building-market ~80%)
Occupancy83%
Average daily rate$192
Gross annual revenue — base case for 2304$58,500

Cross-check: the best-run unit we manage in this building, with no owner blocks, ran 86% occupancy on a larger floorplan — above our 83% base assumption. 2304 is also larger (825 vs 780 sq ft) with direct bay views, further supporting the figure.

Annual pro-forma — base case

Professionally-managed short-term rental. Base revenue $58,500 (managed comp, owner summer-blocks restored to market).

Gross STR revenue$58,500
Professional STR management (20%)−$11,700
HOA ($706 × 12)−$8,472
Property tax−$6,411
Insurance (condo, STR)−$2,000
Utilities + internet−$2,640
Supplies, turnover, reserves (~4%)−$2,340
Net operating income (NOI)$24,900
Debt service — Club mortgage ($345K @ 7.25%)−$28,248
Debt service — home-equity line ($131K @ 12%, IO)−$15,720
Pre-tax cash flow−$19,035 (−$1,586/mo)
Read this honestly

At 100% financing — a 7.25% mortgage plus a 12% home-equity line — the deal is cash-flow negative by about $1,600/month. The 5.4% cap rate sits well below the blended cost of that debt, and the 12% line is the reason: it carries a quarter of the purchase at more than double the property's own yield. This is not a small gap that better management closes. The return here has to come from equity build + appreciation — and at 12%, read the wealth breakdown below before you decide it does.

Three revenue scenarios

Same $460K, same 100% financing (7.25% mortgage + 12% equity line). Only the STR revenue assumption changes — and note that no revenue case gets to break-even. That is the 12% line, not the property.

As-reported
$52,100
owner-blocked summers · cap 4.4%
−$1,991 / mo
★ Investor base
$58,500
summer restored 80% · cap 5.4%
−$1,586 / mo
Building ceiling
$60,200
Top of managed range 86% · cap 5.7%
−$1,478 / mo
$0 Gross NOI As-reported $52k $20k Investor base $58.5k $24.9k Bldg ceiling $60k $26k Gross STR revenue Net operating income

Where the return actually is — year 1

Cash flow is only one line. On a 100%-financed asset, the wealth is built through principal paydown and appreciation on a bay-front Brickell property.

Cash flow
−$19,035
Principal paydown (yr 1)
+$3,413
Appreciation @ 3%
+$13,800
Net wealth gain, yr 1
−$1,822
At a 12% line, this no longer builds wealth in year 1

At 8.5% the paydown and appreciation covered the negative carry and left roughly +$2,760. At 12% the extra $4,585 of annual interest overruns them: year one is −$1,822, even with 3% appreciation doing the heavy lifting. The equity line costs more than the asset produces and more than it appreciates. If the 12% is the real cost of the money, the honest read is that this purchase does not carry itself on any of the three revenue cases — and the answer is a bigger cash down payment, a cheaper line, or a different unit.

The portfolio view

Your Doral condo currently nets roughly +$925/month as a rental. Against this unit's −$1,586/month it covers a little under 60% — the two-property portfolio runs at about −$660/month, not break-even. And the equity line is drawn on the Doral itself, so that $925 is what is left after the line it is already paying for.

Two levers move this, and neither is management: refinancing the 12% line down to a normal home-equity rate is worth roughly +$380/month on its own, and a cash down payment instead of 100% financing turns the monthly positive outright. If the 12% is fixed and cash is not available, the honest advice is to wait rather than buy — ask me for the 25%-down version before you decide.

Next step

Let's model your exact numbers together

I'll bring in a lender to size the home-equity line precisely, and we'll walk the STR set-up and management plan for 2304. 15 minutes.

Regulatory disclosure — short-term rental legality at this building

A Miami Herald investigation (July 16, 2026) and Editorial Board opinion (July 20, 2026) examined short-term rental compliance at The Club at Brickell Bay, reporting that roughly 545 of the building's 643 units operate as short-term rentals while only a small subset holds a valid city Certificate of Use for lodging. Florida law (Fla. Stat. §509.242) requires a building-wide Change of Occupancy once more than 25% of units convert to short-term use — a threshold this building has passed. A new HOA board took office in June 2026 and has stated it intends to pursue proper registration. The short-term rental revenue in this analysis reflects actual historical operating performance, not a guarantee of continued legality — buyers should independently confirm current compliance status before purchase.

Assumptions & disclosures

Revenue anchored to a BlueBay-managed 1BR in the same building, 12-mo trailing (as-reported occ 73%, ADR $192, $52,100 gross). That owner self-occupied May–August, dropping those months to 45–54% vs the building's 80–90%; the investor base case restores summer to ~80% market occupancy → 83% blended, $58,500 gross. The ceiling scenario uses 86% occupancy, the top of our managed range in this building.
  • Financing modeled at 100%: $345,000 purchase mortgage (75% LTV, 7.25%, 30-yr) + ~$131,000 home-equity line on the Doral condo (12%, interest-only) covering the down payment and closing costs. Final line size depends on lender underwriting. The 12% is the quoted cost of the line, not a market average — at a conventional home-equity rate the figures throughout this page improve by roughly $380/month.
  • Florida short-term-rental taxes (~13%) — Miami-Dade tourist + state sales tax — are collected from the guest and remitted; they are not an owner expense in the figures above but must be filed on every stay.
  • The tax side: held as a short-term rental with stays of 7 days or less on average, a furnished unit can deduct a large part of its price in its first year. How the Miami STR tax strategy works.
  • Cap rates shown are honest, unlevered NOI ÷ price (4.2% / 5.9% / 7.6%). Appreciation at 3%/yr is illustrative, not guaranteed; the Doral market has recently softened and values can fall as well as rise.
  • A cash down payment (e.g. 25%) instead of 100% financing turns the monthly cash flow positive — ask Steve for that version.
  • Not tax or lending advice. All figures to be verified with your CPA and lender before proceeding.